Tupicoffs’ Client Updates
Financial Planning for us means providing our clients with ongoing relevant updates about the financial climate. We keep up to date with all changes that may effect our clients so they never have to worry about their money.
“Our role is to ensure our clients financial opportunities are explored and any pitfalls are avoided. Part of our service as Independent Financial Advisers is to provide our clients with peace of mind. We know life isn't all about money, but we also know how important financial security is to enjoying other aspects of life.” - Neil Kendall OAM
March 2025 Client Investment Update from Neil Kendall - Managing Director of Tupicoffs, The Independent Financial Planners
Cyclone Alfred is rapidly approaching, if you are also in southeast Queensland, we hope that you remain safe.Tupicoffs have enacted our disaster plan. We take everyone's personal and digital safety seriously so our staff are working remotely on secure computers to keep themselves and your information safe.
|We were right in our predictions that a market slowdown was approaching, now in the first quarter of 2025, we have seen that occur.
Over the last year we have seen the Australian market up about 4.7%, with the 2 year market increase sitting at just over 11%. On the international front, the S&P 500, is up 14.45% for the last year, and is up just over 44% for the last 2 years, a very strong performance.
Inflation remains low around the world. As inflation has come down, economies around the world and markets have all improved. We think that inflation is probably under some pressure, however at this stage it still remains low.
Importantly, unemployment remains very low, which is a very good sign for economies around the world.
We are seeing employee confidence in job availability, knowing that there is work available. Which allows confidence from consumers that they can continue to spend, keeping the economy and markets moving well.
Trump is incredibly unpredictable, so we don't know what he's going to announce, or when he's going to announce it. We expect overall that Trump is pro-business, and therefore the net effect of his announcements will be good for the US economy and US businesses in the long-term.
We are aware of the big push from Trump for the introduction of tariffs.
These are inflationary and will put the price of imported goods up. Despite it being framed as other countries paying these tariffs, it will be the US consumers who pay tariffs if they import a foreign good. The tax or a tariff added to it will make it more expensive, and in theory less attractive for Americans to buy, promoting the purchase of American produced products.
There has been some pushback, with other countries saying that they will introduce reciprocal tariffs.
From an economic perspective it's unlikely to be a long-term problem, but it's front of mind at the moment and has driven markets down over the last couple of weeks. We would expect that there will be offsets or reductions, or in fact abandonment of the Tariff policies, if it has a big negative impact on the US share market.
Company earnings in the US remain strong, companies are still making good profits, and we don't expect to see any sudden sell-off.
We will see reactions to political announcements as those occur, but we don't see any particular weakness in the market, fluctuations are all part of the normal market cycle.
While this year is unlikely to be as strong as the last few, we do still expect that we will see single digit positive returns over the next 12 months. If we see 7%, 8%, or 9% over the next 12 months that will give us very strong three-year numbers. We do expect volatility on the road to these returns, in terms of investment changes, however we don't believe there are any to be made at the moment.
If any of our clients are feeling under pressure, or are concerned about the risks, we're more than happy to make adjustments or discuss a range of options with you.
We hope all of our clients in South East Queensland stay safe during Cyclone Alfred.
The Highlights
Please remain safe and well amidst cyclone Alfred, Tupicoffs will be operating remotely under our disaster plan until the cyclone has passed.
Market slowdown predicted; Australia up 4.7%, and the US S&P 500 up just over 11% over the last 12 months.
Low inflation and unemployment signal positive economic trends, but risks remain.
The unpredictability of Trump may impact business, and tariffs could raise consumer prices.
Despite market volatility, strong company earnings support valuations and outlook.
No major investment changes recommended at this stage.
2025 is expected to yield more normal, but still positive investment returns.
Please contact us if you have any questions or concerns. We are always happy to make adjustments or discuss options with you.
